https://doi.org/10.65281/641407
BRAHIM DEHEB
University of Kasdi Merbah Ouargla
Submission date : 01.04.2025. Accepted date : 12.09. 2025.Publicaion date : 12.11.2025
Abstract
Food security represents a fundamental prerequisite for sustainable economic development and foreign trade expansion in developing economies. This article examines the multidimensional relationship between food security, economic sustainability, and trade performance through an analysis of Algeria’s agricultural and economic transformation. Algeria faces persistent food security challenges despite substantial natural resource endowments, primarily due to structural dependencies on hydrocarbon revenues and agricultural import reliance. The analysis explores theoretical linkages between food security dimensions(availability, access, utilization, and stability)and their transmission channels to macroeconomic outcomes including productivity growth, export competitiveness, and economic diversification. The Algerian case reveals how chronic food insecurity undermines foreign exchange stability, constrains non-hydrocarbon trade development, and perpetuates import-dependent consumption patterns. By examining policy frameworks, agricultural production systems, and trade structures, this study identifies pathways through which enhanced food security can catalyze sustainable development transitions and strengthen export-oriented agricultural sectors. The findings underscore the imperative of integrated strategies combining agricultural modernization, water resource management, and trade diversification to achieve simultaneous food security and economic sustainability objectives.
Keywords: food security; sustainable economic development; foreign trade; agricultural productivity; Algeria; economic diversification; import dependency; trade competitiveness
Introduction
Food security has emerged as a central pillar of sustainable development agendas globally, particularly within resource-dependent economies seeking structural transformation and trade diversification. The conceptual evolution of food security from simple caloric availability to encompass access, utilization, and stability dimensions (Hyunsoo, 2015, p. 476) reflects growing recognition that nutritional adequacy underpins human capital formation, labor productivity, and ultimately macroeconomic performance. For developing nations, achieving food security while simultaneously expanding non-traditional export sectors presents complex policy trade-offs between self-sufficiency objectives and comparative advantage exploitation in international markets. Algeria exemplifies this developmental dilemma, as its hydrocarbon-dominated economy confronts persistent agricultural deficits that drain foreign exchange reserves and constrain economic diversification efforts.
Algeria’s food security challenge is multifaceted, rooted in ecological constraints including water scarcity in arid and semi-arid zones (Bouchentouf & Benabdeli, 2021, p. 415), underutilized agricultural potential, and institutional weaknesses that have perpetuated import dependency since independence. Despite possessing substantial arable land and water mobilization infrastructure, Algeria imports approximately 70 percent of its food consumption requirements, rendering food security vulnerable to global price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. This dependency simultaneously undermines fiscal stability through subsidy obligations and inhibits agricultural sector modernization that could generate competitive export products. Understanding the mechanisms through which food security deficits constrain sustainable development and trade expansion is essential for designing integrated policy frameworks that address production, distribution, and consumption dimensions holistically.
This article investigates how food security functions as both an outcome and determinant of sustainable economic development trajectories, with particular attention to foreign trade implications in the Algerian context. The analysis proceeds through several interconnected objectives: first, synthesizing theoretical and empirical literature on food security-development-trade nexuses; second, constructing a conceptual framework linking food security dimensions to productivity, competitiveness, and growth channels; and third, contextualizing these relationships within Algeria’s structural economic characteristics and policy environment. The central research question examines whether Algeria can leverage agricultural sector development to simultaneously enhance food security and generate export-oriented agri-food industries capable of diversifying foreign trade beyond hydrocarbons.
Literature Review
Scholarly discourse on food security’s role in economic development has evolved considerably, moving from production-centric approaches emphasizing agricultural output maximization toward integrated frameworks recognizing multidimensional linkages between nutrition, human capital, and growth. Early theoretical perspectives rooted in classical development economics posited agriculture’s dual function in providing both sustenance for growing populations and surplus labor for industrial transformation. Contemporary research has extended these foundations by empirically demonstrating how food security deficits directly impair cognitive development, labor productivity, and human capital accumulation, thereby constraining long-term growth potential.
The relationship between international trade and food security remains contested within development literature, with competing perspectives on whether trade liberalization enhances or undermines food availability and access. Hyunsoo (2015, pp. 476-477) contributes important empirical evidence by identifying a U-shaped relationship between trade expansion and food security in least developed countries, wherein initial trade liberalization phases temporarily reduce food security through import competition with domestic producers, but subsequent stages enhance security through market access, foreign exchange earnings, and agricultural productivity spillovers. This non-linear dynamic suggests that trade policy design and sequencing significantly mediate food security outcomes, with implications for economies like Algeria transitioning toward greater openness. The findings emphasize that agricultural productivity investments must accompany trade liberalization to prevent adverse food security impacts during transitional periods.
Research specifically examining North African and Algerian food security contexts highlights distinctive challenges arising from water scarcity, land degradation, and rentier economic structures. Bouchentouf and Benabdeli (2021, pp. 416-418) provide comprehensive diagnosis of Algeria’s water-food security nexus, demonstrating that despite substantial hydraulic infrastructure investments, inefficient water allocation and management practices constrain agricultural productivity growth. Their analysis reveals that Algeria’s dependence on cereal imports exceeds sustainable thresholds given current production capacities and resource mobilization patterns. The study emphasizes that structural reforms addressing land tenure security, input subsidy rationalization, and extension service delivery are prerequisites for enhancing domestic production sufficiency. These institutional dimensions interact with biophysical constraints to perpetuate import dependency cycles that drain foreign reserves and expose food consumption to international price shocks.
The dairy sector exemplifies broader food security governance challenges in Algeria, as documented by Mamine et al. (2021, p. 8), who analyze regulatory frameworks spanning production subsidies, import quota management, and consumer price controls. Their research demonstrates how state intervention across the entire dairy value chain, from farm-level production support to retail price regulation, reflects prioritization of consumption access over production efficiency objectives. While these policies achieve short-term food availability and affordability goals, they generate fiscal burdens through subsidy expenditures and discourage private investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. The dairy case illustrates broader tensions between food security conceived as import-financed consumption versus domestically-rooted production systems capable of generating employment and rural development co-benefits.
Emerging literature on food security’s macroeconomic dimensions examines linkages to trade balance sustainability, fiscal policy space, and economic diversification trajectories. For resource-dependent economies, food import financing through hydrocarbon export revenues creates vulnerability to dual price shocks(rising food prices and declining energy prices)that can precipitate currency crises and macroeconomic instability. These dynamics underscore food security’s systemic importance beyond agricultural sector boundaries, positioning it as a central component of economic resilience and diversification strategies. Research gaps remain, however, in empirically quantifying transmission channels through which food security improvements translate into export competitiveness gains, particularly regarding agri-food processing industries that could leverage domestic production bases to penetrate regional and international markets.
Conceptual and Theoretical Framework
The conceptual architecture linking food security to sustainable economic development and foreign trade expansion operates through multiple transmission channels encompassing productivity, human capital, fiscal sustainability, and structural transformation pathways. This framework integrates food security’s four dimensions(availability, access, utilization, and stability)with macro-level development outcomes, specifying mechanisms through which agricultural and nutritional improvements generate broader economic benefits. For analytical clarity, the framework distinguishes direct effects operating through agricultural sector performance from indirect effects mediated by human capital formation, resource allocation efficiency, and macroeconomic stability.
The availability dimension addresses domestic production capacity relative to consumption requirements, incorporating both quantity and quality aspects of food supply. Hyunsoo (2015, p. 477) emphasizes that availability improvements through productivity growth generate positive externalities including rural employment creation, foreign exchange conservation, and upstream-downstream linkage development with input supply and food processing industries. In trade-constrained economies, availability enhancement reduces import dependency, thereby releasing foreign exchange for capital goods imports that support industrialization and export diversification. Theoretical models of trade-led growth suggest that countries achieving food self-sufficiency in basic staples can redirect scarce foreign currency toward technology imports and intermediate goods essential for manufacturing competitiveness, creating virtuous cycles between food security and export-oriented industrialization.
Access dimensions encompass economic and physical pathways through which populations obtain adequate nutrition, incorporating income distribution, relative prices, infrastructure connectivity, and market integration factors. From a development perspective, access improvements contribute to poverty reduction and inequality mitigation objectives while simultaneously expanding effective demand for domestically-produced goods, including processed foods and agricultural inputs. Bouchentouf and Benabdeli (2021, p. 420) demonstrate that infrastructure investments connecting production zones to consumption centers reduce marketing margins and price volatility, thereby enhancing both producer profitability and consumer affordability. These access improvements generate dynamic efficiency gains by encouraging private investment in value-addition activities and supply chain coordination mechanisms that raise overall sector competitiveness.
The utilization dimension addresses nutritional quality, food safety, and dietary diversity aspects that determine how effectively consumed food translates into human health and cognitive development outcomes. Utilization improvements yield long-term human capital accumulation effects that elevate labor productivity across economic sectors, not merely agriculture. Theoretical frameworks linking nutrition to economic growth emphasize that childhood malnutrition generates persistent cognitive and physical impairments reducing lifetime earnings capacity and aggregate productivity. For developing economies, investments enhancing food utilization(including fortification programs, nutrition education, and food safety regulatory systems)represent crucial components of human capital strategies essential for competitive participation in knowledge-intensive and skill-demanding export industries.
Stability encompasses both short-term shock resistance and long-term sustainability of food systems, incorporating resilience to climate variability, price volatility, and supply disruptions. Economic stability dimensions of food security relate to balance-of-payments sustainability and fiscal policy space, particularly for import-dependent countries. Food price shocks transmit through consumer budgets to wage demands, potentially triggering inflationary spirals and currency pressures that destabilize macroeconomic environments. Countries achieving food system stability through diversified production bases, strategic reserves, and resilient supply chains demonstrate greater macroeconomic stability conducive to long-term investment and export sector development.
The framework’s trade dimensions specify how food security interacts with export competitiveness through multiple channels. First, agricultural modernization enhancing food security generates surplus production potentially directed toward export markets, particularly for processed and value-added products meeting international standards. Second, foreign exchange savings from reduced food imports create capacity for strategic imports supporting export industries. Third, rural income growth from agricultural productivity improvements expands domestic markets for light manufacturing, enabling economies of scale that reduce unit costs and enhance export price competitiveness. Fourth, food security-driven human capital improvements elevate labor force quality across sectors, including export-oriented industries requiring skilled workers.
Algeria Context and Background
Algeria’s food security situation reflects complex interactions among ecological constraints, historical policy legacies, economic structure, and demographic dynamics that collectively shape agricultural performance and trade patterns. As North Africa’s largest country by land area, Algeria encompasses diverse agro-ecological zones ranging from Mediterranean coastal plains to Saharan desert regions, with agricultural potential concentrated in northern areas receiving adequate rainfall. However, only approximately 3 percent of total land area supports cultivable agriculture, constrained by aridity, soil quality limitations, and water scarcity that intensify under climate change projections. These biophysical realities establish structural parameters within which food security strategies must operate, necessitating efficiency-oriented approaches maximizing output from limited arable resources.
Historical trajectory since independence in 1962 reveals persistent food security challenges despite evolving policy frameworks. Initial post-colonial decades emphasized agrarian reform and state-led agricultural development through cooperatives and state farms, achieving limited productivity gains while food demand expanded rapidly alongside population growth and urbanization. By the 1980s, structural adjustment pressures prompted liberalization of agricultural markets and gradual privatization of state farms, yet productivity growth remained insufficient to meet domestic requirements. Mamine et al. (2021, p. 9) document how subsequent policy iterations have oscillated between production-support measures including input subsidies and extension services, and consumption-oriented interventions including price controls and import management, without fundamentally resolving underlying productivity constraints. This policy instability has discouraged long-term private investment in agricultural modernization and value-chain development essential for competitive agri-food industries.
Algeria’s hydrocarbon-dependent economic structure fundamentally shapes food security dynamics and trade patterns. Oil and gas exports constitute approximately 95 percent of export revenues and 60 percent of budget receipts, creating fiscal capacity to finance food imports but simultaneously generating Dutch disease effects that appreciate real exchange rates and undermine agricultural competitiveness. Abundant foreign exchange availability during high hydrocarbon price periods has facilitated import-reliant consumption patterns while reducing incentives for domestic agricultural investment. However, this model’s vulnerability became apparent during 2014-2020 oil price decline, when foreign reserves contracted sharply and import capacity tightened, exposing food security risks inherent in external dependency. Bouchentouf and Benabdeli (2021, p. 421) emphasize that sustainable food security requires structural transformation beyond hydrocarbon reliance, necessitating agricultural productivity growth and economic diversification that generates employment and rural development benefits alongside production increases.
Current agricultural production patterns reveal concentration in cereals, vegetables, and livestock, with persistent deficits in cereals, dairy products, and edible oils requiring substantial imports. Cereal self-sufficiency hovers near 40 percent despite favorable agro-climatic conditions in northern regions, reflecting yield gaps between actual and potential productivity. Dairy sector development illustrates broader challenges, as domestic milk production satisfies approximately 50 percent of consumption despite significant investments in genetic improvement through imported dairy cattle and feed subsidy programs. These productivity shortfalls relative to resource endowments suggest institutional and technical constraints including fragmented land holdings, limited mechanization, inadequate extension services, and input market imperfections that prevent farmers from adopting yield-enhancing technologies.
Trade structure reflects food security vulnerabilities, with food imports representing approximately 25 percent of total import value and cereals alone accounting for 10 percent. This import dependency creates balance-of-payments pressures and exposes consumption to international price volatility, as experienced during 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 global food crises when Algeria faced sharply rising import bills. Export diversification efforts have achieved limited success in agri-food sectors, with agricultural exports remaining negligible in total export composition. Processed food exports face competitiveness constraints including high production costs, quality standardization challenges, and limited integration into regional and international value chains. Developing competitive agri-food export industries requires simultaneous achievement of domestic food security through productivity growth and quality upgrading enabling penetration of demanding export markets, representing integrated development challenges rather than trade-offs.
Water resource constraints constitute perhaps the most binding long-term limitation on agricultural expansion and food security improvement. Algeria’s renewable water resources per capita fall below international scarcity thresholds, with agricultural water use exceeding sustainable extraction rates in many regions. Bouchentouf and Benabdeli (2021, pp. 422-423) detail how inefficient irrigation practices including flood irrigation and poor maintenance of hydraulic infrastructure result in low water productivity, wasting scarce resources while failing to maximize crop yields. Climate change projections indicating reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration rates will intensify water-agriculture tensions, necessitating urgent investments in water-saving technologies, institutional reforms governing water allocation, and crop selection favoring drought-tolerant varieties. These water security imperatives directly constrain food security prospects and require integrated resource management approaches linking agricultural, environmental, and economic objectives.
Research Questions and Hypotheses
The Algerian economy confronts a paradox: substantial hydrocarbon revenues have not translated into agricultural self-sufficiency or sustained diversification, leaving food security vulnerable to international market volatility and domestic structural constraints. Algeria relies on imports for approximately 70% of its internal food demand, a dependency that undermines both national food security and macroeconomic stability (Inezarene & Ariouat, 2024, p. 142). This persistent reliance raises fundamental questions about the interplay between food security dimensions, trade policy orientation, and pathways toward sustainable economic development in resource-dependent economies transitioning toward diversification.
The present study addresses three interconnected research questions. First, what is the relationship between Algeria’s food security status(operationalized through availability, access, utilization, and stability dimensions)and its economic development trajectory as measured by GDP growth, employment generation, and human development outcomes? Second, to what extent does trade openness, particularly the composition and volatility of food imports relative to non-hydrocarbon exports, mediate or constrain Algeria’s capacity to achieve sustainable development goals? Third, what structural and policy factors explain the persistence of food insecurity despite decades of agricultural investment programs and favorable fiscal conditions during periods of high oil prices?
Three hypotheses guide the analysis. H1: Higher levels of food import dependency are negatively associated with economic stability indicators, particularly during periods of declining hydrocarbon revenues, due to foreign exchange constraints and fiscal pressure. H2: Trade openness(measured as the ratio of total trade to GDP)exhibits a nonlinear relationship with food security outcomes in Algeria, whereby greater openness without corresponding agricultural productivity gains exacerbates vulnerability to external shocks. H3: The absence of robust linkages between agricultural productivity growth, rural employment, and domestic food production constitutes a structural barrier to achieving simultaneous improvements in food security and sustainable economic development, reflecting path-dependent rentier economic structures.
Methodology
This study employs an indicator-based synthesis approach grounded in the multi-dimensional conceptualization of food security and its integration with sustainable development frameworks. The methodological strategy combines qualitative synthesis of secondary data sources with systematic indicator mapping to construct a diagnostic profile of Algeria’s food security(trade)development nexus. Rather than relying on primary quantitative modeling, the analysis synthesizes peer-reviewed empirical evidence, official statistical databases, and policy documents to identify patterns, relationships, and constraints (Manikas et al., 2023, pp. 3-5).
Conceptual framework and variable operationalization. Food security is operationalized through the four-pillar FAO framework: availability (domestic production levels, import volumes, cereal self-sufficiency ratios), access (household purchasing power, food price indices, poverty rates), utilization (dietary diversity scores, micronutrient adequacy, anthropometric outcomes), and stability (production variability, price volatility, policy consistency) (Manikas et al., 2023, pp. 6-8). Each pillar comprises multiple indicators that enable triangulation across data sources and temporal comparisons. Trade dynamics are measured through trade openness indices (total trade as percentage of GDP), export composition (hydrocarbon versus non-hydrocarbon shares), import dependency ratios (food imports as percentage of total imports and as percentage of domestic consumption), and terms-of-trade fluctuations (Benbekhti et al., 2024, pp. 4-5). Sustainable economic development indicators include GDP growth rates disaggregated by sector, non-oil GDP performance, employment rates in agriculture and manufacturing, foreign exchange reserves, and proxy measures of human development such as literacy and life expectancy.
Data sources and temporal scope. The analysis draws upon three primary data categories. First, food security metrics are derived from FAO statistical databases (FAOSTAT), national agricultural censuses, and household consumption surveys conducted by Algeria’s National Office of Statistics (ONS). Second, trade and macroeconomic data are sourced from World Bank Development Indicators, IMF Article IV reports, and Algeria’s Ministry of Commerce publications. Third, sectoral productivity and structural transformation indicators are compiled from academic studies published in peer-reviewed Algerian and international journals specializing in agricultural economics, development studies, and regional economics. The temporal frame spans approximately two decades (2000(2022), encompassing periods of hydrocarbon revenue expansion (2000)2014) and subsequent contraction (2014(2022), enabling analysis of how external shocks propagate through the food security)trade–development system.
Analytical procedures. The methodology proceeds through four sequential stages. Stage one involves systematic mapping of available indicators for each conceptual dimension, assessing data quality, completeness, and temporal consistency. Stage two constructs composite profiles for food security, trade orientation, and development outcomes at decadal intervals (circa 2000, 2010, 2020) to identify trajectories and inflection points. Stage three applies qualitative comparative reasoning to identify associations between shifts in trade policy regimes, agricultural investment cycles, and food security outcomes, drawing on econometric findings reported in existing empirical studies. Stage four synthesizes findings into a diagnostic narrative that characterizes Algeria’s performance across the food security(trade)development nexus, highlighting structural constraints and policy misalignments.
Measurement approaches for food security. Given the multi-dimensional nature of food security, the analysis incorporates both direct and indirect measurement approaches documented in the literature. Experience-based food insecurity scales, such as the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) developed by FAO, offer household-level assessments of food access constraints (Manikas et al., 2023, pp. 9-10). Dietary diversity scores provide insights into utilization dimensions by capturing the variety of food groups consumed within specified reference periods. Caloric availability estimates, derived from food balance sheets, serve as national-level proxies for availability, though they do not capture intra-household or spatial distribution patterns. Anthropometric data, when available, provide objective biological markers of chronic food insecurity, particularly for vulnerable populations including children under five years. The integration of multiple indicator types addresses the limitation that no single metric comprehensively captures food security status and enables cross-validation of findings.
Algeria Case Indicators: Food Security, Trade, and Development
Food security dimensions in Algeria. Algeria’s food security profile exhibits pronounced vulnerability across multiple dimensions despite substantial state expenditure on food subsidies and agricultural development programs. Domestic cereal production, the cornerstone of food availability, remains highly variable due to rainfall dependency in rain-fed agricultural zones concentrated in the northern coastal plains and interior high plains (Benniou & Aubry, 2012, pp. 8596-8597). Average cereal yields in semi-arid regions remain below potential, constrained by soil degradation, declining organic matter content, and limited adoption of conservation agriculture practices. The national cereal self-sufficiency ratio fluctuates between 20% and 40% across years, with wheat and barley production particularly volatile (Benbekhti et al., 2024, pp. 6-7). Consequently, Algeria imports substantial volumes of wheat, barley, maize, and other staple commodities, ranking among the world’s largest wheat importers in absolute terms.
Access to food reflects both macroeconomic conditions and distributional equity. During periods of high hydrocarbon revenues (2000–2014), Algeria maintained extensive food subsidy programs targeting staple commodities including bread, milk, sugar, and edible oils, thereby stabilizing consumer prices and enhancing access for low-income households. However, fiscal pressures following the 2014 oil price decline compelled gradual subsidy rationalization, increasing the real cost of food for vulnerable populations (Inezarene & Ariouat, 2024, pp. 143-144). Household dietary diversity scores vary considerably across urban and rural contexts, with urban households generally exhibiting greater diversity due to better market access and higher purchasing power. Research on urban poor households in Constantine demonstrated that household dietary diversity scores averaged 6.8 food groups, with positive correlations between diversity and caloric adequacy, yet significant proportions of households faced micronutrient deficiencies (Hassani, 2020, pp. 34-35).
Utilization patterns reveal additional challenges. While Algeria has achieved high coverage of safe drinking water access in urban areas, rural zones exhibit gaps in water quality and sanitation infrastructure that constrain nutrient absorption and health outcomes. National dietary guidelines exist but remain weakly enforced, and nutrition surveillance systems lack the consistency required for evidence-based policy adjustments. Stability(the least measured food security dimension)presents particular concerns given Algeria’s exposure to international price shocks for imported commodities, exchange rate volatility, and domestic policy inconsistencies across agricultural planning cycles.
Trade structure and openness. Algeria’s trade profile remains dominated by hydrocarbon exports, which historically accounted for over 95% of total export revenues and provided the foreign exchange necessary to finance food imports (Benbekhti et al., 2024, p. 3). This export concentration creates a direct transmission channel whereby international oil and gas price fluctuations immediately affect fiscal capacity, import financing, and ultimately food security. Trade openness, measured as the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP, fluctuated between 60% and 75% during the 2000–2020 period, indicating substantial international economic integration despite protectionist policies in specific sectors. However, the composition of this openness reveals asymmetry: while imports span diverse categories including food, capital goods, and consumer products, exports remain narrowly concentrated in hydrocarbons with negligible agricultural or agri-food exports (Benbekhti et al., 2024, pp. 7-8).
Empirical research examining the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Algeria confirms a positive long-term association, yet this relationship operates primarily through hydrocarbon export revenues rather than productivity-enhancing technology transfers or competitive pressures on domestic industries (Adda & Belhaoues, 2024, pp. 176-177). Algeria’s agricultural and agri-food exports remain marginal, constrained by limited value-chain development, inadequate post-harvest infrastructure, and regulatory barriers. The services sector has emerged as the dominant contributor to GDP since 2015, surpassing 50% of national output, while agriculture’s share declined despite persistent employment dependence in rural areas (Benbekhti et al., 2024, p. 2). This structural transformation reflects deindustrialization and informalization rather than productivity-driven modernization, raising questions about the sustainability of growth trajectories.
Development outcomes and structural constraints. Algeria achieved significant development gains during the hydrocarbon revenue boom, including elimination of external debt, accumulation of foreign exchange reserves exceeding $200 billion, reductions in unemployment rates, and improvements in literacy and life expectancy. These achievements enhanced the country’s capacity to finance food imports and maintain subsidy programs, thereby supporting food security availability and access dimensions (Benbekhti et al., 2024, pp. 9-10). However, these gains proved vulnerable to revenue shocks, and structural weaknesses persisted. Non-oil GDP growth remained modest, averaging 3–4% annually, insufficient to absorb labor force growth or reduce unemployment among youth populations. Agricultural GDP (PIBA) exhibited volatility corresponding to climatic variability, with limited evidence of sustained productivity increases despite investments in irrigation infrastructure and pivot systems in Saharan zones.
Rural development remained constrained by land tenure insecurity, limited access to credit for smallholder farmers, and weak extension services. Farm typologies in semi-arid regions revealed substantial diversity in resource endowments, cropping patterns, and economic orientations, yet common constraints included inadequate equipment, limited irrigation access, and reliance on rain-fed systems vulnerable to drought (Benniou & Aubry, 2012, pp. 8599-8600). Sustainability assessments of cereal-based cropping systems in regions such as Souk Ahras and Sétif revealed declining soil organic matter, nutrient mining, and agro-ecological degradation, threatening long-term productive capacity (Latreche et al., 2019, pp. 112-113). Irrigated cereal farms in Saharan zones, while achieving higher yields, exhibited artificiality and dependency on subsidized inputs, raising questions about economic viability absent state support.
Empirical and Analytical Results: Qualitative Synthesis
The synthesis of indicator patterns and empirical evidence yields three principal findings regarding the food security(trade)development nexus in Algeria. First, the relationship between trade openness and food security operates asymmetrically through import dependency rather than export diversification. Algeria’s high trade openness reflects substantial food imports financed by hydrocarbon revenues, creating a vulnerability structure wherein external shocks to oil prices or international food markets directly threaten domestic food access. Periods of declining hydrocarbon revenues, such as 2014–2020, corresponded with foreign exchange constraints, subsidy reductions, and heightened food price volatility, validating Hypothesis 1. This finding aligns with broader theoretical expectations that resource-dependent economies face Dutch disease effects, wherein hydrocarbon sectors crowd out tradable non-hydrocarbon sectors, including agriculture, through real exchange rate appreciation and factor market distortions (Benbekhti et al., 2024, pp. 11-12).
Second, the nonlinear relationship between trade openness and food security hypothesized in H2 receives partial support. During periods of high oil prices, trade openness facilitated food security by enabling large-scale food imports that supplemented domestic production shortfalls and stabilized availability. However, this import-dependent food security model proved fragile when hydrocarbon revenues declined, exposing the economy to dual vulnerabilities: reduced fiscal capacity to maintain subsidies and heightened exposure to international food price volatility. The absence of corresponding gains in agricultural productivity or export competitiveness meant that trade openness did not generate the dynamic benefits(technology transfer, competitive discipline, scale economies)typically associated with trade liberalization in development economics literature. Instead, openness reinforced structural dependency and inhibited diversification (Adda & Belhaoues, 2024, pp. 178-179).
Third, structural barriers rooted in Algeria’s rentier economy characteristics impede the establishment of productive linkages between agricultural investment, rural employment, and sustainable development outcomes, supporting Hypothesis 3. Despite decades of agricultural policy interventions(including land reform programs, irrigation infrastructure investments, input subsidies, and extension services)Algeria has not achieved sustained improvements in cereal self-sufficiency or agri-food export capacity. The persistence of low productivity, particularly in rain-fed cereal zones, reflects multiple interacting constraints: insecure land tenure systems discourage long-term investments in soil conservation; limited access to mechanization and quality inputs constrains yield potential; weak value chains and post-harvest infrastructure generate losses and limit market access; and policy inconsistency across political cycles undermines farmer confidence in long-term planning (Inezarene & Ariouat, 2024, pp. 145-146). Furthermore, the rentier state’s tendency to prioritize urban consumption subsidies over rural productivity investments creates a political economy bias against agricultural transformation.
Comparative analysis with regional peers underscores Algeria’s underperformance relative to its resource endowments. While Algeria possesses substantial arable land potential, water resources (albeit constrained), and fiscal capacity, its food security indicators lag behind countries with more diversified economic structures and sustained agricultural productivity growth. The reliance on imports for 70% of food demand contrasts unfavorably with countries that achieved greater self-sufficiency through integrated rural development strategies, technology adoption, and value-chain coordination. This gap reflects not resource scarcity per se but institutional weaknesses, policy incoherence, and the crowding-out effects of hydrocarbon dominance on tradable sectors (Benbekhti et al., 2024, pp. 13-14).
The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global disruptions further exposed these vulnerabilities. Supply chain disruptions, export restrictions by grain-producing countries, and price spikes on international markets highlighted the risks of heavy import dependency. Algeria’s capacity to navigate these shocks depended critically on accumulated foreign exchange reserves and remaining fiscal space, which deteriorated significantly relative to pre-2014 levels. The experience reinforced calls for agricultural policy reform, import substitution strategies, and economic diversification, though implementation remained constrained by governance weaknesses and vested interests benefiting from existing importation systems.
Robustness and Validity Considerations
Several methodological limitations and data constraints affect the robustness and generalizability of these findings. First, the indicator-based synthesis approach, while enabling comprehensive assessment across multiple dimensions, does not establish causal relationships with the rigor of econometric identification strategies. Associations identified between trade patterns, food security indicators, and development outcomes may reflect common underlying drivers(such as macroeconomic shocks or policy regime changes)rather than direct causal pathways. Future research employing panel data econometrics, instrumental variable approaches, or quasi-experimental designs could strengthen causal inference by exploiting exogenous variation in oil prices, trade policy reforms, or agricultural investment programs (Benbekhti et al., 2024, pp. 14-15).
Second, data availability and quality vary considerably across indicators and time periods. National-level food balance sheets provide broad availability estimates but obscure sub-national heterogeneity, seasonal variations, and intra-household distribution patterns. Household survey data capturing dietary diversity, food expenditure, and anthropometric outcomes remain sporadic rather than systematic, limiting temporal trend analysis. Trade data, while relatively comprehensive for aggregate flows, lack sufficient commodity-level disaggregation to assess shifts in food import composition or quality dimensions. Agricultural productivity data suffer from inconsistent reporting across wilayat (provinces) and limited coverage of informal or subsistence production. These gaps necessitate cautious interpretation of precise magnitudes while allowing reasonable confidence in directional patterns and relative performance comparisons (Manikas et al., 2023, pp. 12-13).
Third, the multi-dimensional nature of food security introduces measurement complexity and potential inconsistencies across indicators. Research demonstrates that different food security metrics(caloric availability, dietary diversity, experience-based scales, anthropometric outcomes)often yield divergent assessments of food security status for the same population, reflecting the distinct dimensions captured by each approach (Manikas et al., 2023, pp. 14-15). In Algeria’s context, national-level availability indicators suggest moderate food security due to substantial imports, while access and utilization indicators reveal significant vulnerabilities among low-income and rural populations. Stability assessments highlight pronounced fragility linked to external dependencies. This heterogeneity across dimensions complicates aggregate assessments and underscores the necessity of multidimensional frameworks rather than single-indicator approaches.
Fourth, external validity and generalizability require careful consideration. Algeria’s unique characteristics(substantial hydrocarbon endowments, rentier state structures, demographic dynamics, geographic constraints, and policy legacies)limit the extent to which findings directly extrapolate to other contexts. However, the broader pattern(whereby resource wealth fails to translate into agricultural productivity, export diversification, or resilient food security absent supportive institutions and policies)resonates with experiences in other resource-dependent economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and sub-Saharan Africa. Comparative case study research could illuminate which aspects of Algeria’s experience reflect general mechanisms versus context-specific factors.
Fifth, temporal dynamics and structural breaks present analytical challenges. Algeria’s economic trajectory over the past two decades includes distinct sub-periods: the hydrocarbon boom (2000(2014), characterized by rising revenues, fiscal expansion, and accumulation of reserves; and the adjustment period (2014)2022), marked by revenue decline, fiscal consolidation, and subsidy rationalization. Food security outcomes, trade patterns, and development indicators behaved differently across these regimes, suggesting that relationships are conditional on macroeconomic contexts. Static or cross-sectional analyses risk obscuring these time-varying dynamics. Future research incorporating regime-switching models or structural break econometrics could better capture these nonlinearities (Adda & Belhaoues, 2024, p. 180).
Finally, the absence of counterfactual scenarios limits assessment of policy effectiveness. Algeria implemented numerous agricultural development programs, irrigation projects, and food security strategies over the study period, yet isolating their specific impacts from confounding factors(climatic variability, international price movements, macroeconomic shocks)proves difficult without experimental or quasi-experimental designs. Evaluations relying on pre-post comparisons without control groups cannot definitively attribute observed changes to interventions versus external factors. More rigorous impact evaluations employing difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, or propensity score matching approaches could strengthen evidence on policy effectiveness and inform future program design.
Despite these limitations, the convergence of evidence across multiple indicators, time periods, and analytical approaches lends credibility to the core findings: Algeria’s food security remains vulnerable due to heavy import dependency financed by volatile hydrocarbon revenues; trade openness has not generated diversification benefits due to structural rigidities; and achieving sustainable development requires addressing institutional weaknesses and policy incoherence constraining agricultural productivity growth. These conclusions remain robust to reasonable variations in measurement approaches and data sources, though precise quantitative estimates should be interpreted cautiously given data limitations.
Discussion
The intricate relationship between food security and sustainable economic development in Algeria reveals a complex interplay of structural vulnerabilities and policy challenges that extend beyond mere agricultural productivity. Algeria’s persistent dependence on food imports represents a critical vulnerability threatening both economic sovereignty and sustainable development trajectories (Yacef & Ledhem, 2024, p. 118). This heavy reliance on external food sources exposes the nation to price volatility in international markets and potential supply chain disruptions arising from geopolitical tensions and health crises (Inezarene & Ariouat, 2024, pp. 3-4). The mechanisms through which food security influences economic development in Algeria operate through multiple channels: agricultural value-added contribution to GDP, employment generation in rural areas, foreign exchange conservation, and the creation of backward and forward linkages with other economic sectors.
The agricultural sector’s role as a genuine enhancer of food security in Algeria manifests primarily through increased value-added agriculture and the expansion of land dedicated to farming (Yacef & Ledhem, 2024, pp. 132-133). However, the two strategic sectors of cereals and milk have consistently remained below consumption needs, reflecting structural inefficiencies in Algeria’s food production systems (Sahali & Guendouzi, 2022, p. 2). This gap between domestic production capacity and consumption requirements has profound implications for foreign trade balances, as Algeria must allocate substantial foreign exchange reserves to food imports, thereby constraining resources available for productive investment in industrial diversification and technological upgrading.
International evidence suggests that trade liberalization and openness can yield contradictory effects on food security depending on institutional contexts and domestic production capacities. While some scholars argue that trade openness improves food security by reducing prices and increasing dietary diversity (Dithmer & Abdulai, 2017, p. 8), others contend that a 10% increase in food trade openness could increase undernourishment prevalence by approximately 6% in developing countries with weak agricultural sectors (Mary, 2019, p. 15). For Algeria, this tension is particularly salient given the rentier nature of its economy, which has fostered continued dependence on hydrocarbon revenues for food import financing without implementing serious policies to enhance domestic food production capacity (Inezarene & Ariouat, 2024, p. 8). The Dutch disease phenomenon looms as a persistent threat, whereby hydrocarbon export revenues appreciate the real exchange rate, making agricultural exports uncompetitive while simultaneously cheapening food imports and thereby discouraging domestic production.
The relationship between economic development level and food imports exhibits an inverted U-shaped pattern, with food imports initially rising with per capita income before declining at higher development stages (Fukase & Martin, 2020, p. 12). Algeria’s position along this curve suggests that current income levels drive dietary upgrading toward more diverse and protein-rich foods, yet domestic agricultural systems lack the sophistication to meet these evolving demands. Consequently, economic growth paradoxically exacerbates food import dependency rather than stimulating domestic supply responses, creating a structural constraint on sustainable development pathways. This pattern undermines export competitiveness in non-hydrocarbon sectors by draining foreign exchange reserves that could otherwise finance technology imports and capital goods essential for industrial upgrading.
International food trade contributes to both opportunities and vulnerabilities for food-deficit nations (Springmann et al., 2023, p. 888). While trade can theoretically improve food availability and dietary diversity, it simultaneously exposes importing countries to supply chain disruptions, price spikes, and geopolitical leverage. For Algeria, achieving food security requires moving beyond import substitution rhetoric toward comprehensive strategies that address water resource constraints, land degradation, climate variability, and the need for technological modernization in agricultural production systems. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that Algeria’s agricultural sector possesses inherent resilience capabilities, yet these remain insufficient to achieve strategic autonomy in critical food commodities (Sahali & Guendouzi, 2022, p. 3).
Policy Implications for Algeria
The policy architecture required to transform food security challenges into sustainable development opportunities must address both supply-side constraints and demand-side pressures while recalibrating Algeria’s position within global food value chains. First, policymakers should prioritize investments in water-efficient irrigation technologies and sustainable water resource management, given that water scarcity represents the primary limiting factor for agricultural expansion in Algeria’s semi-arid and arid regions. Policies must incentivize the adoption of drip irrigation, precision agriculture techniques, and drought-resistant crop varieties through targeted subsidies and technical assistance programs that reduce farmers’ adoption risks.
Second, diversifying export revenues away from hydrocarbon dependence requires deliberate industrial policy linking agricultural modernization with agro-processing industries that generate higher value-added and create employment opportunities. Rather than exporting raw agricultural commodities, Algeria should develop processing capacities for cereals, fruits, vegetables, and animal products that cater to regional markets in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This approach would simultaneously improve food security, generate foreign exchange through non-hydrocarbon exports, and create rural employment that stems migration to urban areas.
Third, land tenure reform and consolidation of fragmented agricultural holdings must feature prominently in policy design. Small, fragmented farms constrain mechanization, limit economies of scale, and reduce farmers’ capacity to invest in productivity-enhancing technologies. Policies facilitating voluntary land consolidation through cooperative arrangements, while protecting smallholder rights, could improve agricultural efficiency without triggering social disruption. Additionally, clarifying property rights for state-owned agricultural lands and enabling long-term leasing arrangements would encourage private investment in agricultural modernization.
Fourth, Algeria must reform its food subsidy system to balance consumer protection with incentives for domestic production. Current subsidy mechanisms often inadvertently encourage consumption of imported wheat and dairy products while providing insufficient price signals to domestic producers. Redesigning subsidies to support domestic procurement at remunerative prices, coupled with targeted social protection for vulnerable households, would better align food security objectives with agricultural development goals. Such reforms require careful sequencing to prevent social unrest while gradually building domestic production capacity.
Fifth, regional trade integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area presents opportunities for Algeria to access larger markets for agricultural exports while diversifying food import sources. Policymakers should negotiate trade agreements that protect sensitive agricultural sectors during transition periods while identifying export opportunities in processed foods and Mediterranean agricultural products where Algeria possesses comparative advantages. Regional integration could also facilitate technology transfer and joint research initiatives addressing common challenges like climate adaptation and desert locust control.
Practical Recommendations
Near-term actions (1-3 years): Establish a National Food Security Observatory to monitor production, stocks, prices, and trade flows in real-time, enabling evidence-based policy responses to emerging threats. Launch pilot programs demonstrating water-efficient irrigation technologies in five high-potential agricultural zones, providing farmers with technical training and partial cost-sharing for technology adoption. Implement targeted credit facilities through agricultural development banks offering preferential interest rates for investments in greenhouse cultivation, post-harvest storage facilities, and agro-processing equipment. Strengthen agricultural extension services by recruiting and training field agents specializing in climate-smart agriculture practices, integrated pest management, and soil conservation techniques.
Medium-term initiatives (3-7 years): Develop regional agricultural value chains linking producers, processors, and retailers through contractual arrangements that guarantee prices and markets, reducing transaction costs and information asymmetries. Invest in rural infrastructure(particularly rural roads, electricity grid extension, and cold chain logistics)that reduces post-harvest losses and connects farmers to urban markets. Establish agro-industrial parks in strategic locations that provide shared processing facilities, quality testing laboratories, and export facilitation services for small and medium enterprises. Reform agricultural education by modernizing curricula in agricultural institutes and universities to emphasize entrepreneurship, digital agriculture, and sustainable intensification practices.
Long-term structural transformations (7-15 years): Develop a comprehensive national agricultural research and innovation system linking universities, research institutes, and private sector stakeholders around priority challenges in crop breeding, livestock genetics, water management, and climate adaptation. Invest in large-scale irrigation infrastructure projects that harness non-conventional water sources, including treated wastewater reuse for agriculture and desalination for high-value horticultural production in coastal zones. Promote inter-generational knowledge transfer by creating mentorship programs connecting experienced farmers with young agricultural entrepreneurs, while simultaneously offering attractive career pathways that retain educated youth in agricultural sectors. Establish a sovereign food security fund capitalized through hydrocarbon revenues that finances long-term agricultural investments while providing insurance against global food price shocks.
Institutional coordination mechanisms should include establishing an inter-ministerial committee on food security chaired at the prime ministerial level, ensuring policy coherence across agriculture, trade, finance, water resources, and land management portfolios. Public-private partnerships should be cultivated through regular stakeholder consultations involving farmer organizations, agribusiness firms, consumer associations, and civil society organizations in policy design and implementation monitoring. Performance metrics should move beyond production volumes to encompass sustainability indicators including soil health, water use efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, dietary diversity, and rural income growth.
Limitations and Future Research
This analysis encounters several methodological and empirical limitations that constrain generalizability and precision. First, data availability and quality challenges in Algeria’s agricultural statistics system limit rigorous quantitative assessment of causal relationships between food security indicators and economic development outcomes. Time-series data on agricultural productivity, rural incomes, and nutritional outcomes often suffer from inconsistent measurement methodologies and reporting gaps, particularly at subnational levels. Future research should prioritize establishing standardized data collection protocols and investing in household-level longitudinal surveys that track food security dynamics across diverse agro-ecological zones and socioeconomic strata.
Second, this study’s focus on national-level patterns necessarily obscures significant regional heterogeneity within Algeria. Food security challenges and agricultural potential vary dramatically between the fertile northern coastal plains, the semi-arid high plains, and the Saharan regions where oasis agriculture predominates. Future investigations should employ spatially disaggregated analyses examining how localized factors(including land quality, water availability, market access, and ethnic composition)mediate relationships between food security and development outcomes. Geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies offer promising methodological tools for capturing this spatial complexity.
Third, the analysis insufficiently addresses gender dimensions of food security and agricultural development in Algeria. Women play critical roles in agricultural production, food processing, and household nutrition decisions, yet face systematic barriers to land ownership, credit access, and extension services. Future research should investigate how gender-targeted interventions(including land titling reforms, women’s agricultural cooperatives, and nutrition education programs)affect household food security outcomes and women’s economic empowerment. Intersectional approaches examining how gender interacts with age, education, and urban-rural location would enrich understanding.
Fourth, climate change impacts on Algerian agriculture remain inadequately modeled in existing literature. Future research should develop integrated assessment models projecting how temperature increases, precipitation variability, and extreme weather events will affect crop yields, livestock productivity, and water availability under different emissions scenarios. Such models should inform adaptation strategies including crop variety selection, planting calendar adjustments, and livestock management practices tailored to Algeria’s diverse agro-ecological contexts. Linking climate projections to food security indicators and trade balance implications would strengthen policy relevance.
Fifth, the political economy of food security reform deserves deeper investigation. Understanding how interest groups(including large-scale farmers, food importers, consumer lobbies, and bureaucratic agencies)shape policy outcomes requires qualitative research methods including elite interviews, process tracing, and comparative institutional analysis. Future studies should examine why previous agricultural policy reforms failed to achieve stated objectives and identify political strategies enabling successful policy implementation despite resistance from vested interests. Comparative analysis with successful agricultural transformation experiences in Morocco, Tunisia, or Egypt could yield actionable insights.
Conclusion
Food security occupies a pivotal position in Algeria’s sustainable development trajectory and foreign trade performance, operating simultaneously as a development prerequisite and a development outcome. Algeria’s persistent dependence on food imports(driven by the combination of rising consumption demands, stagnant domestic productivity, and the rentier economy’s distortionary effects)constrains foreign exchange availability for productive investment while exposing the nation to external vulnerabilities. The agricultural sector demonstrates potential to enhance food security through value-added growth and land expansion, yet structural barriers including water scarcity, land fragmentation, technological gaps, and weak institutional capacity prevent realization of this potential. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed both the inherent resilience of Algeria’s agricultural sector and its continued inability to achieve strategic autonomy in critical commodities like cereals and dairy products, underscoring the urgency of comprehensive reform.
Achieving food security while promoting sustainable economic development and export diversification requires integrated policy approaches addressing supply-side constraints through technological modernization, institutional strengthening, and infrastructure investment, while simultaneously reforming demand-side policies including subsidies and trade regimes. The inverted U-shaped relationship between economic development and food imports suggests that Algeria must actively cultivate domestic agricultural capabilities to avoid perpetual import dependency as incomes rise and diets diversify. Regional trade integration, agro-industrial development, and climate adaptation strategies offer pathways for transforming food security from a chronic vulnerability into a foundation for sustainable prosperity and reduced hydrocarbon dependence. Future research addressing data gaps, spatial heterogeneity, gender dimensions, climate impacts, and political economy constraints will strengthen evidence bases for policy design and implementation, ultimately contributing to Algeria’s achievement of food sovereignty within the framework of sustainable and inclusive economic development.
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